SAF Is Aviation's Best Shot at Net Zero. So Why Is Supply Falling Short?
Aviation is one of the hardest industries to decarbonise. Everyone in the sector knows it. And yet, the most credible solution available today powers less than 1% of the world's flights.
The technology exists. The mandates are live. The corporate commitments are signed. What is missing is volume, and the reasons behind that shortage are more complex than most headlines suggest.
This blog unpacks what is holding supply back, where the real pressure points are, and why the next five years will determine whether aviation's clean fuel ambitions hold up against the realities of physics, finance, and feedstock limits.
What Makes Sustainable Aviation Fuel Worth the Fight
Sustainable aviation fuel is produced from renewable or waste-based feedstocks instead of crude oil. Sources include:
- Used cooking oils and animal fats
- Agricultural residues and forestry waste
- Municipal solid waste
- Captured carbon combined with green hydrogen (Power-to-Liquid)
What makes it uniquely valuable is its drop-in compatibility. It blends directly with conventional jet fuel. No new engines, no aircraft modifications, no infrastructure overhaul. The same planes. The same airports. Lifecycle carbon reductions of up to 80% depending on the production pathway.
The technology works. The problem is producing enough of it.
The Numbers Tell a Stark Story
SAF production doubled in 2024, reaching roughly 1 million metric tonnes globally. That is progress. But context matters:
- In 2026, IATA projects total SAF output at just 2.4 million metric tonnes
- That represents 0.8% of all jet fuel consumed worldwide
- By 2030, global demand is forecast to exceed 15 million metric tonnes
- By 2035, demand is projected to reach 40 million metric tonnes
- Production capacity by 2035 is expected to cover only 18 million metric tonnes
That leaves a shortfall of roughly 26 million metric tonnes. To be closed in under a decade. This is not a rounding error. It is the defining challenge of aviation's energy transition.
Mandates Are Creating Urgency. Supply Is Not Keeping Pace.
Regulators are moving. The EU's ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation sets binding SAF blending requirements, starting at 2% in 2025 and rising to 70% by 2050. The UK mandate has increased to 3.6% in 2026. Singapore has its own framework, with more Asian mandates expected.
For airlines, this is no longer voluntary. It is compliance.
The first full EU mandate year revealed a market reliant on a handful of producers, with limited spot availability. KLM has stated publicly that reaching a 14% SAF blend in the Netherlands by 2030 requires the fuel to become both more affordable and far more available.
The mandates are creating demand signals. Production has not responded at the required scale.
Three Barriers Standing Between Today and 2030
- Feedstocks Are Running Out of Room
The dominant production pathway, HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids), converts waste oils and fats into jet fuel. It is proven and commercially mature. It is also reaching its ceiling. Analysts warn of a "HEFA tipping point" where available waste feedstocks cannot support aviation's future volumes. Moving beyond HEFA means fast-tracking Alcohol-to-Jet, Gasification-Fischer Tropsch, and Power-to-Liquid. These pathways exist but are not yet at commercial scale.
- The Economics Work Against Investors
SAF costs two to five times more than conventional jet fuel. Returns on SAF investment sit below 5%, against roughly 20% in the oil sector. Capital follows margins. In 2025, Shell wrote down $1 billion from a shelved SAF project. Without long-term policy certainty or guaranteed offtake agreements, investor hesitancy persists.
- Infrastructure Is Years Behind
New SAF refineries take years to build. Power-to-Liquid production requires green hydrogen, captured CO?, and renewable energy infrastructure, all at commercial scale, all at once. That build-out has not happened yet.
Where the Optimism Sits
Asia-Pacific is shifting from feedstock exporter to active SAF producer, with new refineries planned across Southeast Asia. For 2026, the global market is projected to remain broadly in balance at around 2.5 million metric tonnes. Airlines that moved early are securing supply through long-term contracts.
Blended finance structures, government co-investment, and carbon credit mechanisms are starting to make previously unviable projects possible.
Progress is real. But the post-2030 gap demands urgency.
Where Industry Leaders Are Meeting in 2026
The challenges above — feedstocks, investment, regulation, infrastructure — cannot be solved in isolation. They need the right people in the same room.
Leadvent Group, a global leader in high-impact B2B conferences for the energy and sustainability sectors, is hosting the 2nd Annual World Sustainable Aviation Fuel Forum on 23–24 June 2026 at the Steigenberger Airport Hotel, Amsterdam.
This two-day hybrid event brings together 150+ senior professionals and 35+ executive speakers. It is built for:
- Fuel producers and SAF technology developers
- Airline and airport operators
- Investors, financiers, and policymakers
- Renewable energy and hydrogen developers
- Consultants, researchers, and supply chain specialists
This is one of the most focused sustainable aviation events on the 2026 European calendar. Whether you are scaling production, structuring investment, or navigating regulation, this is the aviation conference where those decisions are shaped.
Seats at the 2nd Annual World Sustainable Aviation Fuel Forum are limited. If your work sits anywhere in the SAF value chain, register now and secure your place before the event fills up.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is SAF and how is it different from regular jet fuel?
SAF is produced from renewable or waste-based feedstocks rather than crude oil. It blends directly with conventional jet fuel and requires no aircraft or infrastructure modifications. Depending on feedstock and production method, it can reduce lifecycle carbon emissions by up to 80%.
- Why does SAF cost more than conventional jet fuel?
Production volumes are still low, limiting economies of scale. Feedstocks cost more to process than crude oil, and many newer technologies have not yet reached commercial maturity. SAF currently costs two to five times more than conventional jet fuel. Closing that gap requires long-term purchase commitments, policy support, and scaled investment.
- Are airlines legally required to use SAF?
In a growing number of markets, yes. The EU's ReFuelEU regulation introduced binding mandates from 2025, rising from 2% to 70% by 2050. The UK mandate is at 3.6% for 2026. Singapore has its own requirements. Non-compliance carries regulatory and financial consequences.
- Who is speaking at the 2nd Annual World Sustainable Aviation Fuel Forum and what makes it different from other industry events?
The forum features 35+ executive speakers from organisations actively shaping the SAF market, including Hy2gen, LanzaJet, Repsol, ING, Barclays, Fly Green Alliance, Bonsucro, Hydrogen Europe, and Sustainable Aviation. What sets it apart is the focus on the full value chain in one room — fuel producers, financiers, policymakers, airlines, and technology developers working through real challenges together. Keynotes, roundtables, and structured networking make this a working event, not just a conference.
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